Who has the edge? Dolphins vs. Patriots, for season sweep of divisional foe

Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (4-6) and New England Patriots (3-8) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 12 game at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m., CBS):

When the Dolphins run: It’s not so much a three-headed monster at running back for the Dolphins, but more so De’Von Achane handling the big workload. He did it again in last Sunday’s 34-19 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, with 17 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown. The second-year tailback has already stormed past his rookie year carry total (101), with 122, while also leading the team in receptions (46).

As he rushes for 4.3 yards per carry this season for Miami’s 11th-ranked rushing offense, it would be a welcome return if fullback Alec Ingold can play through his calf injury. There’s a direct correlation between his absence and the lack of a 100-yard team rushing output in back-to-back games. This after easily hitting that mark in four consecutive outings. Nonetheless, left tackle Terron Armstead and center Aaron Brewer are exceptional run blockers, while guards Robert Jones and Liam Eichenberg have been serviceable since the opening month of the season.

New England’s run defense ranks No. 20 in the NFL. Linebacker Jahlani Tavai leads the Patriots in tackles, and former Dolphins defensive tackle Davon Godchaux is key for coach Jerod Mayo’s defense in the middle. The Patriots were the team that got Miami going on the ground on Oct. 6, even as Achane left early that afternoon with a concussion, and they have allowed 100 yards rushing in eight of their past nine games. But Raheem Mostert said this week they have incorporated new schemes in run defense. Edge: Dolphins

When the Patriots run: When you face New England, you face a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson. He already has a whopping 154 carries in 10 games and is averaging 3.8 yards per attempt, with 585 on the year and six touchdowns. It’s been no different of late, as the power runner got his 20 carries.

The Dolphins didn’t do a good job of stopping him nor Antonio Gibson in their first meeting. Stevenson went for 7.4 yards per carry (89 yards on 12 attempts), and Gibson had six carries for 52 yards (8.7 average). A big change for the Dolphins defense up front, though, has come in the demotion — and eventual cut — of linebacker David Long Jr., inserting Anthony Walker Jr. in his place. Since that move three games ago, the Dolphins have not allowed a 100-yard team rushing performance against them. This once-struggling run defense now ranks No. 10 in the league, and the defensive front has also benefited the past two games from the return of defensive tackle Zach Sieler. Edge: Dolphins

When the Dolphins pass: With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back the past four games, Miami’s pass game has been incredibly efficient. He has thrown seven touchdowns to one interception and has been above 70 percent on completions every time out, including 89.3 percent against the stout Buffalo Bills defense. He also has the Dolphins as the NFL’s top team in converting third and fourth downs over the past four weeks.

So this area of Sunday’s game takes on a different outlook than Oct. 6 in Foxborough, when Tyler “Snoop” Huntley started at quarterback. The Dolphins could stand to start hitting the big plays more like they have in the past, but Tagovailoa has been taking what the defense gives him, and it led to methodical drives throughout the win over the Raiders, before eventually hitting the big play downfield to tight end Jonnu Smith. With Smith’s effectiveness, it could lead Mayo to instruct his secondary, led by cornerback Christian Gonzalez and safety Kyle Dugger, to play more honestly against star wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots were always known to create a focus on stopping that duo.

New England’s 20th-ranked pass defense also has to worry about Achane getting his touches in the pass game. The Patriots’ pass rush isn’t too intimidating. Defensive ends Keion White and Deatrich Wise have five sacks apiece this season, but the Miami offensive line is coming off an effort in which it held stellar Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby at bay, between right tackle Kendall Lamm’s play and some effective chips from tight ends. Tagovailoa can continue to get the ball out on time, while using some of his newfound mobility when needed. Edge: Dolphins

When the Patriots pass: And on the New England side, it’s also a new look than the first pairing of these two teams. After the Dolphins sank the Patriots in Week 5, Mayo sat veteran Jacoby Brissett in favor of rookie No. 3 pick Drake Maye. In six starts, Maye is 2-4 and has completed 66.8 percent of passes for 1,236 yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions. The youngster can make plays in the pocket and on off-schedule throws, but he may be a little more susceptible to turning it over than Brissett, who had just one interception in his time as New England starter.

As the Dolphins have struggled in recent weeks covering talented tight ends like the Raiders’ Brock Bowers and Cardinals’ Trey McBride, it may behoove defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver to deploy a different strategy. As safety Jordan Poyer has struggled, maybe allow cornerback Jalen Ramsey to play in the box and cover Patriots tight end Hunter Henry, who leads the team in receptions and receiving yards? New England isn’t particularly scary on the outside, with Demario Douglas the only wide receiver with more than 300 receiving yards for the team’s passing offense ranked last in the NFL. With fellow cornerback Kendall Fuller expected to miss a second game due to his latest concussion, it could be either Storm Duck or Cam Smith who play as third up at the position behind Ramsey and Kader Kohou.

Maye can be elusive at times, but the Dolphins will have opportunities to get to him, as New England ranks 29th in the league, giving up 35 sacks. Rookie edge rusher Chop Robinson can build on his high pass rush win rate against Las Vegas and sacks in each of the two previous games, as he and Emmanuel Ogbah look to attack tackles Vederian Lowe and Mike Onwenu. Sieler and Calais Campbell should create an interior pass rush, or get their hands up to deflect Maye passes when they can’t get to him. Edge: Dolphins

Special teams: It’s a special teams disaster nearly every time the Dolphins play the Patriots. There’s no other way to put it. New England special teams ace Brenden Schooler blocked a punt when these two teams met earlier this season, and last year, he got the Dolphins for a blocked field goal. What will happen this time, as long snapper Blake Ferguson, who had a bad snap in the first Patriots matchup, remains on the non-football illness list and Tucker Addington handles those duties?

That said, Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders has made all his kicks over the past four weeks. And Jake Bailey didn’t even have to punt against the Raiders. You just never know what can happen in this phase of the game when Miami plays New England. Edge: Patriots

Intangibles: Miami comes in on two-game winning streak and has an opportunity at home to complete a season sweep of the Patriots in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1999-2000. The Dolphins know every week is pivotal toward their playoff hopes, so they won’t overlook New England and its young combination of rookie coach Mayo and rookie quarterback Maye. Tagovailoa, by the way, is 6-0 in his career against the Patriots. Edge: Dolphins

PREDICTION: Dolphins 31, Patriots 17

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