Whether the Broncos move up, down or stay at No. 12, they are confident in their ability to land an impact player in the first round of the NFL draft on Thursday. The quarterback position has been the central focus of draft talks since the team benched Russell Wilson for the final two games of last season. But with the possibility of four quarterbacks taken inside the top eight, Denver could shift its focus to address other areas of need.

Here is everything you need to know ahead of draft night.

NFL Draft date and times

TV/Streaming: ABC, ESPN, NFL Network, NFL+ and YouTube TV

Round 1: Thursday, 6 p.m. MT

Round 2-3: Friday, 5 p.m. MT

Round 4-7: Saturday, 10 a.m. MT

Broncos draft picks

Previous Denver Post mock drafts: Aggressively pursuing a QB | Trading back in first round | Post-combine mock draft | Strengthening the DL | Adding playmakers on offense

Draft needs

Quarterback: No surprise here. Acquiring Zach Wilson doesn’t change the fact that the Broncos are looking for a long-term answer at quarterback. Can they find a guy in a crowded first round? Do they have somebody in mind on Day 2 who they think the rest of the league is too low on? One way or another, it would be a major surprise if Denver didn’t take one at some point during the draft. And it would not surprise at all if Sean Payton and company are aggressive in their pursuit.

Defensive line: Disruptive interior defensive linemen are among the most coveted commodities in football. The Broncos struggled against the run and rushing the passer in 2023. You’re not likely to find a rookie who can reverse those fortunes in one fell swoop, but drafting and developing up front is the goal and Denver needs to improve in that regard. They’ve added pieces in free agency, but could still target the front line early in the draft.

Edge rusher: Denver’s got a trio of edge players it likes in Nik Bonitto, Baron Browning and Jonathon Cooper. All the same, Browning and Cooper are entering the final year of their rookie deals and you can never have too many edge guys. If not quarterback in the first round, edge might be next in terms of likelihood. Game-altering talents don’t grow on trees and normally are found in the early rounds.

Tackle: You might be saying, “Wait, don’t the Broncos have a pair of high-priced starters at tackle?” Yes, but Garett Bolles is entering a contract year and this is a deep class. Denver has immediate needs on the roster, but it’s usually good draft hygiene to also consider needs a year out. And boy, could the Broncos use a long-term option here. That’s before considering the long odds that Bolles, McGlinchey and the rest of the front line stay as healthy in 2024 as they did last year.

Joker: OK, Joker is not actually a football position. But it is a Sean Payton position. An offensive weapon — usually a tight end or running back — who can produce matchup problems for a defense. Who is that on Denver’s roster right now? Hint: He doesn’t exist. Jaleel McLaughlin might be the closest. Greg Dulcich or Lucas Krull? Maybe, but health and inexperience cast doubt. Whether it’s Georgia TE Brock Bowers, Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright or somebody else, this is likely a Payton focus after QB. And though it’s stretching the definition, let’s not entirely discount the possibility the Broncos love somebody like LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. at No. 12.

Potential first-round targets

QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: Most don’t think he’ll be available at No. 12, but Denver could get aggressive in trying to move up. He’s a winner, he’s tough and he’s the youngest quarterback in the class. Somebody will bet on his upside and do it early.

QB Bo Nix, Oregon: Accurate, smart and a productive runner, Nix is a high-floor option. The ceiling? Different conversation. He should be ready to play early, considering his 61 college starts and that he’s older than fourth-year Denver CB Pat Surtain II.

TE Brock Bowers, Georgia: If QB wasn’t such a need, this would be the guy everybody tied to Payton and the Broncos. He’s a matchup nightmare, makes plays after the catch and would be instant juice for Denver’s passing game.

EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State: A big, powerful pass-rusher with a different build (6-foot-4, 255 pounds) than the Broncos’ young trio. This kind of motor and tenacity would serve Denver’s front seven well.

CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo: Mitchell has the length and speed teams covet at cornerback. With those traits and elite  production, the future is bright. He and Pat Surtain II could become one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL.

EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA: Latu is a crafty pass rusher with great hands. Denver hasn’t had a player record double-digit sacks since Bradley Chubb and Von Miller in 2018. Latu, who recorded 23.5 sacks in two seasons with the Bruins, has the potential to end that streak.

LT Olu Fashanu, Penn State: Fashanu has been one of the best offensive tackles in college over the last two seasons, as he was an exceptional pass blocker for the Nittany Lions. He could be a long-term answer at left tackle.

DT Byron Murphy II, Texas: Denver struggled to generate quarterback pressure from the interior. Murphy, who recorded five sacks in 2023, could step in right away and be disruptive up front.

Staff Predictions

Parker Gabriel, Broncos beat reporter: Four QBs are likely gone by No. 12, but so too are Joe Alt and Brock Bowers. Denver has many needs, but quarterback is the biggest. The Broncos stay put and surprise many by taking Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.

Ryan McFadden, Broncos beat reporter: Denver could very well trade back and acquire more draft picks. However, the Broncos will lean on taking the best available talent. Brock Bowers has a chance to become a dynamic pass-catching threat in the Broncos’ offense for years to come.

Troy Renck, sports columnist: The most important position in professional sports is the quarterback. The Broncos don’t have one. There are a lot of variables in play on whether they move up or back. But I don’t believe they leave Thursday night without J.J. McCarthy or Bo Nix.

Sean Keeler, sports columnist: With the quarterbacks they want off the board and with Zach Wilson in the fold, Peyton & Paton stay put and stay boring, using the BPA route to nab UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu. Spencer Rattler, keep those phone lines open Friday.

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Saylor Swanson says it so casually you can almost miss it.

“I’ve always pictured myself playing quarterback,” Swanson, an Arvada West High junior, said Wednesday morning at the Broncos’ training facility.

She has been, really, for the past two years playing flag football in CHSAA’s pilot program.

She will be this fall, too, but in a slightly different capacity. She’ll be the quarterback for her team’s varsity program after Colorado on Tuesday became the 11th state to make girls flag football a sanctioned high school sport.

On Wednesday, Broncos owner Carrie Walton Penner, team executives and CHSSA commissioner Mike Krueger talked about the journey to get to this point, but also about what comes next.

Broadly, it’s a similar set of feelings for Swanson and the players as it is for the people tasked with implementing the sport and growing it around the state. It’ll be similar to the past two years in some ways, bigger in some ways and exciting all the same. And there’s plenty of work and growth ahead.

“I’m so glad it’s actually taken off,” Saylor said. “I played football when I was a little kid with my brothers and I’ve always wanted to play. I never expected it to be an option. I played co-ed when I was younger and I kind of quit because the boys were getting rough and I was the only girl.

“I’ve always wanted to play for an all-girls team and high school, playing with my friends, it’s just so awesome.”

The Broncos made it clear that the organization will be part of the next phase, too. They’ll continue providing funding and the team’s vice president of community impact and Denver Broncos Foundation executive director Allie Engelken also said they’ll provide education on grant opportunities through Nike, USA Football and other resources available to schools.

“We’re excited to continue to support this sport this season and beyond,” Engelken said. “We do that through not only financial commitment for schools as well as high-impact for youth, but also through a lot of programmatic elements.”

As it pertains to girls flag football, Engelken said those include, “officials and referee recruitment and training. Coaches clinics and sanctioning. Ensuring coaches feel prepared to coach an emerging sport. That includes a regional NFL Flag tournament. … that will continue in partnership with the NFL.

“We see our opportunity for support to continue to grow.”

Krueger noted many school districts face tight budgets in the first place — ”I’ve yet to talk to an athletic director who calls me and says, ‘I’m trying to figure out what to do with all the money I have,’” he said – but expressed confidence that girls flag football is well worth the relatively modest investment.

“The neat thing about girls flag football and flag football in general is that the barriers to it are not hard to overcome,” Krueger said. “It doesn’t take a lot of equipment. The jamboree styles that were incorporated, I know in talking to my colleges across the state — the athletic and activities directors — when you can run three games on one full-sized, 120-yard field, that makes the facility availability and equipment cost (more manageable) and you don’t need 30 or 40 people out there to have a team.”

Not only that, but the data collected so far shows more than half of the pilot program participants weren’t playing another fall sport. To Engelken and the others here Wednesday, that suggests the sport is poised to provide not only an alternate avenue but a new path altogether for girls around the state.

“That’s why this moment matters,” Walton Penner said. “It matters for every girl who loves football but has never seen a place for herself. It matters for every student who has watched others find their passion. For every high school kid looking for her team, her community, her people, this matters.”

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Over eight years for any professional organization, there are wins and losses, head-scratchers and knee-slappers, resounding highs and stinging lows.

The Broncos are no different, though without a postseason berth since Peyton Manning’s retirement, there are more valleys than peaks since Super Bowl 50.

A big part of that, of course, is the quarterback position. Denver hasn’t solved the puzzle no matter which type of piece they’ve tried to make work.

Among other things, that leaves a long list of what-ifs. Those questions aren’t always raised for the purpose of hindsight, either. That’s not the goal of this exercise. It’s to show just how important the next few days might be for head coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton as they decide whether or not to draft a quarterback.

So here are five times among many in the past eight years where it could have been different for Denver. Not necessarily for better or worse — though in some cases fairly obviously one or the other.

Brock Osweiler in 2015: Had Denver signed Osweiler to a modest extension either ahead of the season or perhaps as he took over for seven starts down the stretch, perhaps he’d have taken the reins from Manning after the latter’s retirement and provided some stability. Instead, the 2012 second-round pick signed a $72 million deal with Houston in the spring of 2016 when free agency began and the Broncos drafted Paxton Lynch out of Memphis at No. 26 overall — their most recent first-round quarterback selection. Lynch only started four games over two seasons, losing the job to Trevor Siemien.

Dak Prescott in 2016: Prescott drew intrigue from around the NFL leading up to the 2016 draft but wasn’t selected until the fourth round at No. 135 overall by Dallas. He immediately won the starting job and all he’s done since is throw for nearly 30,000 yards and 202 touchdowns against 74 interceptions over 114 starts. The reason he makes this list: He mused earlier in his career about missing a flight to Denver for a pre-draft meeting and whether that nipped the Broncos’ interest in selecting him.

Josh Allen in 2018: Perhaps the most straightforward example of a what-could-have-been on the board. The story’s well-worn at this point. Allen played right up I-25 at Wyoming. Not only that, but the Broncos coached the 2018 Senior Bowl and had a week-long look at Allen up close and personal. Then they opted to take Bradley Chubb at No. 5. Allen went No. 7 to Buffalo and struggled as a rookie before blossoming into one of the NFL’s best. They’ve yet to break through and win a Super Bowl with Allen, but they’ve been in the playoffs each of the past five years.

Justin Fields in 2021: The last time a draft had this many options at quarterback was 2021. Perhaps that should serve as a lesson, considering only Trevor Lawrence has panned out from the quintet taken in the top 15. The what-if here isn’t so much about whether the Broncos made the correct pick — Pat Surtain II is already a multiple-time All-Pro. Rather, the more interesting thought experiment is what Denver would have done after picking Fields. Most likely, the team would not have traded for Russell Wilson the next spring, meaning it would have had Fields and a full complement of draft compensation moving forward into 2022 and ’23.

Aaron Rodgers in 2022: When Denver hired Nathaniel Hackett in early 2022, this was the obvious connection. Rodgers was weighing a departure from Green Bay and many figured if he decided to leave, reuniting with Hackett would be a natural move. Instead, Rodgers decided to return to Green Bay for one more season, the Packers gave him a lucrative extension and the Broncos promptly swung the mega-trade for Wilson. Denver went 5-12, Hackett was fired after 15 games, Sean Payton took over and benched Wilson after 15 games and now we arrive at Thursday night with the No. 12 overall pick on deck for the Broncos.

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Over eight years for any professional organization, there are wins and losses, head-scratchers and knee-slappers, resounding highs and stinging lows.

The Broncos are no different, though without a postseason berth since Peyton Manning’s retirement, there are more valleys than peaks since Super Bowl 50.

A big part of that, of course, is the quarterback position. Denver hasn’t solved the puzzle no matter which type of piece they’ve tried to make work.

Among other things, that leaves a long list of what-ifs. Those questions aren’t always raised for the purpose of hindsight, either. That’s not the goal of this exercise. It’s to show just how important the next few days might be for head coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton as they decide whether or not to draft a quarterback.

So here are five times among many in the past eight years where it could have been different for Denver. Not necessarily for better or worse — though in some cases fairly obviously one or the other.

Brock Osweiler in 2015

Had Denver signed Osweiler to a modest extension either ahead of the season or perhaps as he took over for seven starts down the stretch, perhaps he’d have taken the reins from Manning after the latter’s retirement and provided some stability. Instead, the 2012 second-round pick signed a $72 million deal with Houston in the spring of 2016 when free agency began and the Broncos drafted Paxton Lynch out of Memphis at No. 26 overall — their most recent first-round quarterback selection. Lynch only started four games over two seasons, losing the job to Trevor Siemien.

Dak Prescott in 2016

Prescott drew intrigue from around the NFL leading up to the 2016 draft but wasn’t selected until the fourth round at No. 135 overall by Dallas. He immediately won the starting job and all he’s done since is throw for nearly 30,000 yards and 202 touchdowns against 74 interceptions over 114 starts. The reason he makes this list: He mused earlier in his career about missing a flight to Denver for a pre-draft meeting and whether that nipped the Broncos’ interest in selecting him.

Josh Allen in 2018

Perhaps the most straightforward example of a what-could-have-been on the board. The story’s well-worn at this point. Allen played right up I-25 at Wyoming. Not only that, but the Broncos coached the 2018 Senior Bowl and had a week-long look at Allen up close and personal. Then they opted to take Bradley Chubb at No. 5. Allen went No. 7 to Buffalo and struggled as a rookie before blossoming into one of the NFL’s best. They’ve yet to break through and win a Super Bowl with Allen, but they’ve been in the playoffs each of the past five years.

Justin Fields in 2021

The last time a draft had this many options at quarterback was 2021. Perhaps that should serve as a lesson, considering only Trevor Lawrence has panned out from the quintet taken in the top 15. The what-if here isn’t so much about whether the Broncos made the correct pick — Pat Surtain II is already a multiple-time All-Pro. Rather, the more interesting thought experiment is what Denver would have done after picking Fields. Most likely, the team would not have traded for Russell Wilson the next spring, meaning it would have had Fields and a full complement of draft compensation moving forward into 2022 and ’23.

Aaron Rodgers in 2022

When Denver hired Nathaniel Hackett in early 2022, this was the obvious connection. Rodgers was weighing a departure from Green Bay and many figured if he decided to leave, reuniting with Hackett would be a natural move. Instead, Rodgers decided to return to Green Bay for one more season, the Packers gave him a lucrative extension and the Broncos promptly swung the mega-trade for Wilson. Denver went 5-12, Hackett was fired after 15 games, Sean Payton took over and benched Wilson after 15 games and now we arrive at Thursday night with the No. 12 overall pick on deck for the Broncos.

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If there’s anything we know about the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, it’s that it will be unpredictable. Still, it doesn’t hurt to predict how things will play out. Here’s our best guess:

1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers) — QB Caleb Williams, Bears: For months, it felt like Williams to Chicago was a no-brainer. The Bears will make it official on Thursday night, landing one of the most highly regarded quarterback prospects in years.

2. Washington Commanders — QB Jayden Daniels, LSU: With a new ownership and coach, it’s only right for the Commanders to start a new era for the organization by drafting a quarterback. Daniels is a dynamic talent that can beat opponents with his arm and legs.

3. New England Patriots — QB Drake Maye, North Carolina: The Patriots will listen to a handful of trade offers. In the end, they will stay put and address the most important position on the field.

4. Arizona Cardinals — WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State: The Cardinals could be tempted to trade back. But the idea of adding perhaps the best overall player in the draft is hard to turn down. Kyler Murray will have a new WR1.

5. Minnesota Vikings (via L.A. Chargers) — QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: The Vikings part ways with the Nos. 11 and 23 overall picks to acquire Kirk Cousins’ successor. McCarthy walks into a great situation with receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson.

6. New York Giants — WR Malik Nabers, LSU: The Giants badly need a playmaker on offense. Nabers finished his career at LSU as the program’s all-time leader in receptions (189) and receiving yards (3,003).

7. Tennessee Titans — OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame: After signing center Lloyd Cushenberry III in March, the Titans continue to strengthen their offensive line with the best tackle prospect in this year’s class.

8. Atlanta Falcons — EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama: The Falcons address their biggest need by taking Turner, who recorded 22.5 sacks in three seasons with the Crimson Tide.

9. Chicago Bears — WR Rome Odunze, Washington: Chicago gives its new franchise quarterback another weapon. Odunze was one of the top receivers in the country in 2023 with 92 receptions for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns.

10. New York Jets — OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State: With Morgan Moses, 33, and Tyron Smith, 34, on one-year deals, the Jets try to find a long-term answer at tackle. The 2023 Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year can make an immediate impact.

11. L.A. Chargers (via Vikings) — OT JC Latham, Alabama: New coach Jim Harbaugh values offensive linemen. Latham is a vicious run blocker and fits what the Chargers are trying to do on offense.

12. Denver Broncos — TE Brock Bowers, Georgia: Denver could trade back and acquire more picks. However, the Broncos will lean on taking the best available talent. Bowers could be a dynamic pass-catching threat for years to come.

13. Las Vegas Raiders — QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington: Penix’s injury history is concerning. But after he threw for 9,544 yards and 67 touchdowns in two seasons with Washington, the Raiders roll the dice.

14. New Orleans Saints — OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State: The Saints take Fuaga with the hope of improving up front. Fuaga was named second-team All-American by the Associated Press after he didn’t allow a sack in 351 pass-blocking snaps in 2023, according to Pro Football Focus.

15. Indianapolis Colts — CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo: Mitchell’s size, speed and ball skills should bolster the Colts’ secondary. The three-year starter had 18 passes defended in 2023 and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds at the combine.

16. Seattle Seahawks — OT Troy Fautanu, Washington: Fautanu reunites with former Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, as the Seahawks value his ability to play either left tackle or guard.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars — CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama: The Jaguars need an upgrade at cornerback. Arnold is a versatile player who can play inside and out.

18. Cincinnati Bengals — OT Amarius Mims, Georgia: The Bengals make protecting quarterback Joe Burrow a priority. Mims, a one-year starter at Georgia, has tremendous upside and all the tools to become a quality starter.

19. Los Angeles Rams — EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA: The Rams pair Latu with Byron Young, who had eight sacks as a rookie, to form a young pass-rushing duo. Latu had 23.5 sacks in the last two seasons with the Bruins.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers — OL Graham Barton, Duke: Barton, who spent the last three years as a starting left tackle, is projected to play guard or center, where he played 430 snaps in 2020, according to PFF.

21. Miami Dolphins — DT Byron Murphy II, Texas: After losing Christian Wilkins in free agency, Miami takes Murphy, who is a disruptive interior defender against the pass and run.

22. Philadelphia Eagles — CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson: The Eagles value Wiggins’ speed as a one-on-one cover corner. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.28 seconds and allowed a 43.9% completion percentage when targeted, according to PFF.

23. L.A. Chargers (via. Vikings) — WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU: Quarterback Justin Herbert needs another weapon. Thomas led the nation in touchdown receptions (17) while his 1,177 receiving yards ranks No. 10 in school history for a single season.

24. Dallas Cowboys — OC Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon: The Cowboys land a new starting center in Powers-Johnson, a Unanimous All-American and 2023 Rimington Trophy winner, which goes to the best player at his position.

25. Green Bay Packers — DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa: DeJean is a starting-caliber player who can play cornerback, safety or nickel. He was a playmaking machine in 2022, collecting five interceptions, with three returned for a touchdown.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State: The Buccaneers get a steal at No. 26. Verse recorded nine sacks each of the past two seasons with the Seminoles. He has the physical traits and explosiveness to be an effective starting edge rusher in the league.

27. Arizona Cardinals — DT Johnny Newton, Illinois: Newton might be undersized but has shown he can be a dominant interior pass rusher. He was named the 2023 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year after recording 52 tackles (8.5 tackles for loss) 7.5 sacks and nine quarterback hurries.

28. Buffalo Bills — WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas: Mitchell gives the Bills’ receiver room a boost. In his lone season with the Longhorns, he caught 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns.

29. Detroit Lions — EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State: Robinson has exceptional speed and explosiveness. In 2023, he started in 10 games, totaling 15 tackles, four sacks and a pass-rush win rate of 20.9%, according to PFF. If the Maryland native continues to develop, he has a chance to become a dynamic pass rusher for the Lions.

30. Baltimore Ravens — OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma: Protecting 2-time MVP Lamar Jackson should be a priority after losing three starting offensive linemen this offseason. Guyton only started 14 career games at offensive tackle. Still, he can become a high-level pass protector at either tackle spot.

31. San Francisco 49ers — CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama: San Francisco picks up one of the nation’s best cornerbacks. McKinstry collected 23 passes defended in his last two seasons with the Crimson Tide.

32. Kansas City Chiefs — WR Ladd McConkey: McConkey would be a reliable target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He brings inside-and-out versatility, as he played 70.3% of his career snaps on the outside and 29.6% in the slot, according to PFF.

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Paxton Lynch fit the offense like a fish on a bicycle.

Let’s start there on why the Broncos enter Thursday’s NFL draft still searching for a franchise quarterback eight years after Peyton Manning retired.

There have been 13 starters since Super Bowl 50, tied for second most behind the Cleveland Browns. Only two have produced a winning record: Trevor Siemien (13-11) and Brett Rypien (2-1).

Lynch and Russell Wilson represent the franchise’s most dramatic failures, moves that shook the franchise to its roots because of the scramble for replacements and financial shrapnel left in their wake. Roughly half the teams in the NFL remain tortured by the process of how to identify and land a quarterback.

The good news for the Broncos is that the draft provides a golden opportunity for coach Sean Payton to find his next Drew Brees. The Broncos’ next starter could define Payton’s legacy in Denver, where he arrived last offseason with a reputation as a quarterback whisperer.

But, there is no guarantee that after all the flights, meetings, film sessions and internal discussions, the Broncos will get this right. The last time the Broncos drafted a quarterback in the first round in 2016, Lynch turned into a punchline. As the Broncos consider their options, it’s important to let the past inform the future, providing hacks for success and pitfalls to avoid.

In Lynch’s case, former general manager John Elway moved up in the draft to acquire the Memphis star, lured by his athleticism, size and potential. Too bad Lynch had never been in a huddle. Or under center. His  mind raced whenever he tried to operate coach Gary Kubiak’s offense.

A new coach in Vance Joseph and new offensive coordinator in Mike McCoy could not make it work either, and in 2018 Lynch was cut.

“You got burned because you bought one new car in the last 13,” said Super Bowl 50 champion and CBS NFL analyst Ryan Harris. “Then you got various versions of used cars. Now, it’s time to look for the new hybrid. From the outside looking in, the idea of Payton finding his next guy is exciting.”

The Broncos have tried almost everything with disappointing results. There was the aforementioned late first-rounder Lynch, the seventh-rounder Siemian, the Day 2 dare Drew Lock, the rising veteran Case Keenum, the castaways with glorious pasts (Joe Flacco and Teddy Bridgewater) and the savior in Wilson. They all had their moments, but none met expectations.

“We get too enamored with the best athletes or the big throws,” said 104.3 The Fan host and Fox NFL color commentator Mark Schlereth. “You know what works? Boring wins football games. Boring keeps you on schedule. That’s what I want to see out of their next quarterback.”

The Broncos have never selected a quarterback in the top 10. Since February, rumblings persist that Payton will move up in an attempt to select from the trio of LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. If Daniels and McCarthy are available when picks three and four roll around, will the Broncos cut in line and mortgage multiple first-round picks? Payton still talks with regret about not trading up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017. Payton has intel on Daniels from his LSU connections, and he personally ran McCarthy through a long workout and meeting session.

“Sean is a hard ass. J.J. never complains. He will walk the path needed to win,” said former Broncos tight end and Big Ten commentator Jake Butt. “In Denver, you need a quarterback who can come in there, not give a crap and not get caught up in the headlines. That’s who J.J. is.”

The most important thing for a rookie quarterback, arguably, is the team that drafts him. It is one of several elements — evaluation, singular organizational vision, strong offensive line, offensive weapons — that can determine whether a drafted quarterback reaches his ceiling or gets swept away on the cutting-room floor.

It starts with the draft evaluation. Payton believes the Broncos are better at it than most, talking confidently about their vetting process. There is no singular template to follow, no Staples Easy Button to push for answers.

“I have been doing this for the last three years and it’s hard,” said former Broncos quarterback and current 49ers quarterback coach Brian Griese. “The college game, less and less, does not translate into what they are asked to do in the NFL. You really have to extrapolate and project, and understand who they are mentally. Can they handle being the guy? And you have to form their fundamentals and technique and you don’t know if it will hold. There’s a lot of risk. You see that every year with guys who fail. It is not easy. But it feels like this year they have to get it right.”

Payton knows the position, having played it in college, and worked in the NFL as an assistant or head coach since 1997. The quarterback’s ability to learn and process information remains critical. It is why the Broncos sent over material late to the prospects to see how they handled cramming for the interview exam. He wants a quarterback with all the hardware and software.

When looking at Broncos past mistakes in the draft, Lynch was not ready to digest a pro offense, and Lock struggled to find a balance between taking chances and taking care of the ball.

There were warning signs with Lynch when teams interviewed him because of the lacking verbiage in Memphis play calls and his lack of responsibility at the line of scrimmage. Lock threw 99 touchdowns in college, but also had 39 interceptions, seldom prevented from playing hero-ball as Missouri tried to overcome better SEC opponents with Lock’s arm.

Changing coaches and coordinators did not help either. This brings up a point that seems obvious. Everyone has to be committed to the quarterback. Regardless of talent, rarely are top picks capable of overcoming dysfunction.

“If the GM, owner and coach are not on the same page, it’s doomed to fail,” said former Broncos Super Bowl 50 champion and Altitude Radio personality Tyler Polumbus. “At the end of the day, Sean has the final say. There shouldn’t be discord. What I experienced in Washington when the owner (Daniel Snyder) forced (coach) Mike (Shanahan) to draft Robert Griffin III, and then Mike drafted Kirk Cousins later on — there’s no quicker way to sabotage a quarterback than that.”

Payton and general manager George Paton insist they have healthy discussions, leaving Paton with a vision on what his coach wants. The pair said there will be no disagreements on draft day — this is not a Kevin Costner movie.

While an argument can be made that the Broncos roster is not quarterback ready — “I might try to get out of salary cap hell that Russ put them in, and add more pieces,” said former NFL quarterback and Seattle radio host Brock Huard — they boast an appealing strength in the offensive line.

While Wilson was sacked 45 times in 15 games last season, internally the Broncos view the line as a positive, frequently assigning blame on Wilson for putting the offense behind the sticks. The Broncos started the same starting five in every game save for the season finale when right tackle Mike McGlinchey missed with injured ribs.

“It plays a much larger role than people realize,” Harris said. “The quarterback needs consistency, needs to know when he moves in the pocket where he will be safe.”

Perhaps the biggest challenge for a Broncos first-round quarterback — whether that’s in the top 10 or later with Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. — is the lack of playmakers. The Broncos have not had a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver since 2019, and only three 1,000-yard rushers (C.J. Anderson, Phillip Lindsay twice) and two 1,000-yard receivers (Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton) since the quarterback carousel began in 2016.

“That seems to be a conversation I have a lot with teams around the league is, OK, A, do we take (a quarterback)? Then do we put him out there right away?” said NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. “And do we have the infrastructure for him to survive and be successful?”

Payton is considered an elite play-caller. However, he demands a lot of his quarterback. His playbook is not for the weak of mind. Payton has only started a rookie once in 258 regular-season games. It is why so many mocks connect the dots to Nix, who will be a rookie in name only, having started 61 college games.

“He wants his quarterback to be able to process quickly, and hit that dig route at 14 to 18 yards. Under Drew Brees they would hit that 7-to-8 times a game,” Schlereth said. “I like Nix. I saw him make a lot of those throws. And I saw McCarthy run a lot of NFL concepts. I know Sean is a good coach. But he has to be sold on a guy and believe beyond a shadow of doubt that guy can be successful.”

The staff — the Broncos have a rising star in quarterbacks coach Davis Webb — must have a plan for the player and the motivation to make it work. Shifting through the previous Broncos’ quarterback wreckage, it is clear how ill-fitted concepts and lack of commitment contributed to abysmal results.

There have been 13 attempts. And 13 whiffs. All that can go away with the right choice on Thursday night.

“I want Payton drooling over one guy. And if he wants one, go get him, don’t wait,” said Broncos Hall of Famer Terrell Davis. “If they walk out this draft without a quarterback, oh boy! I am going to have my popcorn ready.”

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A spring tradition unlike any other: the Broncos’ unending search for a franchise quarterback. They are at 13 and counting since Peyton Manning retired following Super Bowl 50. Will this time draft be different? A look at the unlucky 13, which largely explains why the Broncos have missed the playoffs for eight straight years and suffered seven consecutive losing seasons:

Trevor Siemian

Tenure: 2015-17, 13-11 record

Highlight: Four-touchdown, 312-yard performance in 2016 win at Cincinnati.

Lowlight: Three-interception game in 2017 at KC, leading to benching.

Paxton Lynch

Tenure: 2016-17, 1-3

Highlight: Threw for 254 yards, nearly beating first-time starter Patrick Mahomes in 2017.

Lowlight: Sobbing as he covered his face in a towel after hurting ankle vs. Raiders in ugly loss.

Brock Osweiler

Tenure: 2017, 0-4

Highlight: 5-2 in ’15. Doesn’t count. In relief at Colts, led the team to its only road win of ’17 season.

Lowlight: Picked twice, sacked three times in a 51-23 loss at Eagles.

Case Keenum

Tenure: 2018, 6-10

Highlight: Rallied Broncos to 24-17 win over Steelers, keeping Denver briefly in playoff race.

Lowlight: Missed open Demaryius Thomas for TD vs. KC at home, changing course of season.

Joe Flacco

Tenure: 2019, 2-6

Highlight: Ripped head coach, OC after loss to Colts: “We are afraid to go for it.”

Lowlight: In same game, he suffered season-ending neck injury, ending his career with Broncos.

Brandon Allen

Tenure: 2019, 1-2

Highlight: Threw two touchdowns with no interceptions in debut win over Browns.

Lowlight: Needed cutoff man to make long throws in wind at Bills. Completed 10 passes in loss.

Drew Lock

Tenure: 2019-21, 8-13

Highlight: Looked like star in 309-yard, three-TD outing at playoff-bound Texans in ’19.

Lowlight: Completed 48% of passes with four INTs in 37-12 loss at Raiders in 2020.

Jeff Driskel

Tenure: 2020, 0-1

Highlight: Staged spirit comeback in relief at Steelers, throwing two touchdowns.

Lowlight: Started the next week at home vs. Bucs, was sacked five times and benched.

Brett Rypien

Tenure: 2020-22, 2-1

Highlight: Let it Ryp in prime time game vs. Jets, delivering two scores in 2020.

Lowlight: Lost to Jets at home in 2022, producing one touchdown drive.

Phillip Lindsay

Tenure: 2020, 0-1

Highlight: Taking the snap in the Wildcat formation as the COVID starter vs. Saints in 2020.

Lowlight: Giving way to Kendall Hinton in the COVID game. Hinton completed one pass in loss.

Teddy Bridgewater

Tenure: 2021, 7-7

Highlight: Delivered 328 yards passing at Jacksonville. Part of a terrific 3-0 start to season.

Lowlight: Did not try to tackle Eagles’ Darius Slay on fumble return for TD. Fans turned on him.

Russell Wilson

Tenure: 2022-23, 11-19

Highlight: Thought he would be benched during bye week. Then rallied Broncos to win at Bills.

Lowlight: Needing FG to win vs. Colts, threw awful INT to Stephon Gilmore in crippling ’22 loss.

Jarrett Stidham

Tenure: 2023, 1-1

Highlight: Won starting debut vs. Chargers by taking care of the ball and only taking two sacks.

Lowlight: Threw pick and was sacked five times in discouraging season-ending loss to Raiders.

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There’s so much uncertainty about what the Broncos will do in the first round of the NFL Draft that someone could develop a migraine thinking about the various scenarios.

From the Broncos potentially adding to their offensive line to addressing the need for an explosive running back, here are five storylines to watch out for during the draft, which starts on Thursday night.

Trade up, trade down, or stand pat

This is one of the biggest questions for the Broncos. Head coach Sean Payton is known for being aggressive and trading up in the draft. Meanwhile, general manager George Paton doesn’t mind trading back to acquire more assets.

Even if the Broncos want to move up, it might be hard for them to beat out teams like the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings –two teams that could use a quarterback. But say the Vikings traded up to No. 3, and the Giants decided to draft a wide receiver or offensive tackle with the sixth pick: Denver could stay at No. 12 and see if J.J. McCarthy falls. Or it could try to acquire the No. 8 pick from the Falcons without giving up multiple first-rounders.

Paton said the Broncos have received calls from other teams, asking if they wanted to move back. This could be a more reasonable move since Denver would obtain more picks and potentially be in the mix for quarterbacks Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr.

How does trade for Zach Wilson impact the team’s draft plans?

The Broncos acquired another veteran quarterback, but not the one most fans would expect. Denver traded for New York Jets signal caller Zach Wilson, who will join a quarterback room featuring Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci.

Acquiring Wilson is an inexpensive move with potential gain if the franchise can help revive the former BYU star’s career. But it shouldn’t stop the team from pursuing a quarterback during the draft. If the Broncos want to be aggressive in their pursuit of a rookie quarterback or trade back to nab one, they still can.

Stidham and Wilson do not seem like long-term answers, leaving room for a rookie to come in and compete for the starter job right away. But at the least, the Broncos have some kind of insurance at quarterback if they have to wait until 2025 to address the future of the most important position on the roster.

Running back is a sneaky need

Even though there’s so much talk about quarterbacks, don’t forget about the running back position, which feels like an overlooked need for the Broncos. Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine are entering the final year of their deals. Jaleel McLaughlin showed potential as a rookie, but his lack of size makes it hard for him to be an every-down running back.

If Williams is a part of the Broncos’ future, they could still use more speed and explosiveness out of the backfield. Last season, no Denver players recorded 100 rushing yards in a game. The Broncos have looked closely at running backs during the draft process and could find a starting-caliber player on Day 2 or 3 like Ray Davis (Kentucky) or Jaylen Wright (Tennessee).

If the Broncos don’t take a QB in the first round, what’s next?

Unless Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is available at No. 12, the Broncos might be better off strengthening their defense since they have to face Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes twice a year.

Denver signed former Steelers cornerback Levi Wallace to a one-year deal on Monday. However, the move doesn’t solve the problem of a long-term starter who can play on the opposite side of Pat Surtain II, meaning they could still draft a cornerback in the first round.

Outside of the top three edge rushers, Dallas Turner, Jared Verse and Laiatu Latu, the Broncos could also target Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II. Denver has been committed to improving its defensive line, signing Malcolm Roach and Angelo Blackson. Murphy, a one-year starter for the Longhorns, could be an immediate impact player in the trenches, improving the interior pass rush. He had five sacks and 29 tackles in 2023.

Will the Broncos finally draft an offensive tackle?

The Broncos haven’t drafted an offensive tackle since taking Garett Bolles with the 20th pick in 2017. Bolles, 31, is entering the final year of his deal, meaning it might be time for Denver to figure out what the future would look like at the position. And with this year’s class being strong at tackle, the Broncos could address that question this week.

Penn State’s Olu Fashanu could start right away if needed. Troy Fautanu is projected to play guard at the next level despite being a left tackle at Washington. He could add versatility up front. Meanwhile, Amarius Mims has tremendous upside even though he only was a starter for one season at Georgia. And if the Broncos don’t target a tackle in the first round, Javon Foster (Missouri), Roger Rosengarten (Washington) and Kiran Amegadje (Yale) could be intriguing options in the later rounds.

Payton values offensive linemen. And the possibility of adding a tackle who can be a staple of the offensive line for a decade could be intriguing for the former Saints coach.

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The Broncos have made perhaps one of their easiest decisions of the offseason.

Denver exercised the fifth-year option on All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II’s rookie contract on Tuesday, keeping him under contract through 2025.

Surtain, the ninth overall pick in 2021, will earn $6.6 million ($3.5 million guaranteed) in 2024, according to Over The Cap. But his salary of $19.8 million in 2025 will be fully guaranteed.

Considered one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Surtain made his second straight Pro Bowl appearance after recording 69 tackles and 12 passes defended in 2023. The former Alabama star also allowed a 59.3% completion percentage when targeted.

Surtain, who will be an unrestricted free agent in 2026, is likely to become one of the highest paid cornerbacks in NFL history. Pro Football Focus and Over the Cap analyst Brad Spielberger told The Denver Post that Surtain could command an annual salary between $24.5 million and $27 million, which would push him past Cleveland’s Denzel Ward (five years, $100.5 million) and Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander (four years, $84 million) in 2022, and Miami’s Jalen Ramsey (five years, $100 million) in 2020.

It’s still uncertain who will start on the opposite side of Surtain this season. The Broncos signed former Steelers cornerback Levi Wallace to a one-year deal on Monday, setting up competition between him, Riley Moss and Damarri Mathis. At the same time, Denver could find a long-term answer at cornerback in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday.

Broncos make Wilson trade official: It’s official. There will be another Wilson playing quarterback in Denver. The Broncos announced Tuesday their trade for New York Jets’ Zach Wilson. Denver sent a 2024 sixth-round pick (No. 203) to the Jets in exchange for Wilson and a 2024 seventh-round pick (No. 256). Denver’s quarterback room features Wilson, a second overall pick in 2021, Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci. But there’s still a chance the Broncos add a rookie to the mix through the draft.

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